Updated 1 November 2026. Brent’s January contract, the front month, last settled at $113.43 a barrel on Friday 30 October, up $2.63; WTI settled at $104.12 (Reuters via CNBC). Seven core OPEC+ members meet online today, and three sources told Reuters on Saturday that the group has agreed in principle to keep December output targets steady. No official statement had been published when this page went live. Verdict: a hold is already in the price, so Monday’s open depends on the Strait of Hormuz and on Washington, not on OPEC+. Reference levels: $107 below, $120 above.
Key facts
- Price: Brent January settled at $113.43 on Friday; the expired December contract settled at $117.64 after touching $118; WTI settled at $104.12, up 2.08 percent. It was oil’s highest settlement since the end of April (Reuters via CNBC).
- OPEC+ today: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman meet online on Sunday 1 November. Reuters’ sources say they agreed in principle to hold December targets, in line with expectations that no further policy changes come until next year (Reuters via CNBC, 31 October).
- Why a hold adds no barrels: Gulf producers are raising exports the war disrupted for months, but most still pump well below their targets. A target that cannot be reached does not change supply (Reuters via CNBC).
- What is left of the cuts: OPEC+ finished unwinding a 1.65 million barrel-per-day cut in September. One more layer, about 2 million bpd, covers most members until the end of 2026 (Reuters via CNBC).
- Hormuz, Friday night: Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said a fourth tanker, a supertanker carrying more than 2 million barrels, hit a mine and caught fire on a route it called unauthorised. UKMTO separately reported a vessel hit by an unidentified projectile about 40 nautical miles south of Lavan Island; the crew was safe. It was not clear whether the two reports describe the same ship (Middle East Monitor, 31 October).
- Washington, Saturday: Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Trump “hasn’t made a decision” on resuming military action against Iran and prefers diplomacy. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wrote that Hormuz transits are “back to pre-conflict levels minus Iranian barrels” (Fox News live coverage, 31 October).
What OPEC+ is deciding today
The meeting is about December, and on December the outcome looks settled. The more important work is the review of each member’s production capacity, which OPEC+ needs to finish during the fourth quarter before it sets the 2027 baselines that will decide future quotas and how the remaining cuts are unwound (Reuters via CNBC). The November decision on 4 October followed the same pattern: seven members met and left targets unchanged.
That is why a hold is not a supply story. With the war keeping Gulf output below quota, the group’s targets are a ceiling few members are touching. A surprise would be an early signal on 2027 baselines or on the 2 million bpd layer, and the Reuters sources point the other way. If the official statement confirms the hold, expect little reaction to it at the open.
What the weekend added: claims and confirmations
The weekend’s Hormuz news splits into two kinds. The Revolutionary Guards’ count of tankers hit by mines comes from Tehran and has not been independently confirmed. The UKMTO projectile report is confirmed, but UKMTO did not say who fired. Friday’s limpet-mine strike near Khasab, reported by UKMTO before the settlement, is already in the $113.43 price (see our Saturday Brent week-ahead page for the October picture and the full calendar).
Washington’s message pulled the other way. Bessent’s claim that traffic is back to pre-war levels outside Iranian barrels, and Rubio’s statement that no decision on new strikes has been made, are both bearish for the risk premium if markets take them at face value. Shipping data providers have been less optimistic than the Treasury about flows through the strait for months, so the claim will be tested by tanker-tracking data this week rather than accepted on Monday.
Monday’s open: three things that set it
1. Sunday night’s incidents. ICE Brent futures reopen on Sunday evening, London time. Any confirmed strike between Friday’s settlement and the open goes straight into the first print; a quiet weekend at sea lets the Bessent comments weigh.
2. Tehran. Qatari mediators were in Tehran on Friday, and Iran had not replied to a letter from US Vice President JD Vance, according to Tasnim (Reuters via CNBC). A reply, or a framework from Doha, is the single fastest way to the bear case.
3. The US calendar. The midterms are on Tuesday 3 November and the October jobs report on Friday 6 November. Saxo Bank has flagged the midterms as a source of oil volatility over the next two weeks (Reuters via CNBC).
Brent from Monday’s open: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Brent (January) | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $107 | OPEC+ confirms the hold, the weekend passes without a confirmed new strike, tracking data backs Bessent’s claim on flows, and Tehran answers the Vance letter. | About 5.7 percent below Friday’s $113.43 settlement. |
| Base | $110-$117 | Hold confirmed, incidents continue at the current pace with no closure of the main routes, and talks stay where they are. | Just below Friday’s settlement up to the area where December expired. |
| Bull | $120 | A confirmed hit on a main transit route or new attacks on Saudi facilities, or a Washington decision to resume strikes. | About 5.8 percent above Friday’s settlement and above December’s $118 intraday high. |
The bear case sits below Friday’s settlement. These are reference levels measured from the verified January settlement, not forecasts.
What to watch
- The OPEC+ statement on opec.org later today: whether it says anything about 2027 baselines beyond December.
- The first print after the reopen: a gap above Friday’s $113.43 would show the weekend’s Hormuz reports outweighed the Bessent comments.
- UKMTO notices through Monday, which separate confirmed incidents from claims.
- Gold and rates: higher oil feeds the inflation data behind Fed hike bets, which pushed gold below $3,900 on Friday (see our gold week-ahead page).
Quick take: Brent’s January contract last settled at $113.43. OPEC+ meets today and, according to Reuters’ sources, has agreed in principle to hold December targets, which changes little because most Gulf members are below quota anyway. Monday’s open turns on the weekend’s Hormuz reports against Washington’s claim that flows are back to pre-war levels. Expect $110-$117; $107 needs a diplomatic opening, $120 a confirmed hit on a main route.
FAQ
What is the Brent crude oil price today?
Markets are closed on Sunday until ICE futures reopen in the evening, London time. The latest price is Friday’s settlement: $113.43 a barrel for the January contract (Reuters via CNBC).
What did OPEC+ decide on 1 November?
Three sources told Reuters on 31 October that the seven core members agreed in principle to keep December output targets steady. The official statement had not been published when this page went live.
Why does the OPEC+ hold not lower oil prices?
Because most Gulf members are pumping well below their targets after months of war disruption. Holding a target they cannot reach does not change the number of barrels on the market.
Is the Strait of Hormuz open?
Traffic is moving, but how much is disputed. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on 31 October that transits are back to pre-conflict levels minus Iranian barrels; Iran’s Revolutionary Guards reported further tanker incidents on routes they call unauthorised.
What is the WTI price?
WTI settled at $104.12 a barrel on Friday 30 October, up $2.12 or 2.08 percent (Reuters via CNBC).
When does OPEC+ set 2027 quotas?
After a review of members’ production capacity, which the group needs to finish during the fourth quarter before setting the 2027 baselines (Reuters via CNBC).
Sources: Reuters via CNBC, 30-31 October (settlements, OPEC+ sources, cut layers, capacity review, Tasnim, Saxo Bank); Middle East Monitor, 31 October (IRGC statement, UKMTO report); Fox News live coverage, 31 October (Rubio and Bessent comments); ICE trading hours.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
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