Updated 5 November 2026, 13:30 GMT (before the US open). Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) closed at $200.13 on Wednesday 4 November, down $6.56 or 3.17 percent, and was quoted at $196.50 in pre-market trading at 8:02 a.m. ET on Thursday, down a further 1.81 percent (StockAnalysis). The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.44 percent on the same day, so this was a chip sell-off, not a market sell-off: the Democratic midterm wins raised the risk of slower AI data center construction. Verdict: the stock now sits about 18 percent below its 6 October record with fiscal Q3 results due on 17 November. Reference levels: $180 below, $243 above.
Key facts
- Price: $200.13 close on 4 November, down 3.17 percent from $206.69; day range $199.68-$206.79 on 149 million shares; pre-market $196.50 on 5 November (StockAnalysis).
- Sector: the PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 3.13 percent, Micron 7.00 percent and Marvell 7.08 percent, while Apple closed at a record (Gotrade News).
- Range: 52-week low $164.27, record high $243.37 on 6 October. Wednesday’s close is 17.8 percent below that record.
- Valuation: market value about $4.83 trillion, trailing P/E 25.3, forward P/E 16.6 (StockAnalysis).
- Next catalyst: fiscal Q3 2027 results (quarter ended 25 October) on Tuesday 17 November, call at 5 p.m. ET, with CFO commentary posted around 4:20 p.m. ET (Nvidia press release, 28 October).
- Analysts: consensus Strong Buy across 62 analysts, average 12-month target $327.14, low $180, median $315, high $515 (StockAnalysis).
Why Nvidia fell on a day the Nasdaq rose
Nvidia had no company news on Wednesday. Financial media tied the drop to the midterm results: Democratic wins, including the Texas governor’s race, raised concerns that AI data center construction would slow (Gotrade News; Invezz). Local ballots pointed the same way. One tracker cited by Gotrade counted 38 outcomes limiting development among 39 called local data center measures from election day.
That matters for Nvidia because data center sales are most of its revenue. If power, permits and local approvals slow new sites, the timing of GPU deliveries can shift even when demand is there. The price move alone does not show any customer cancelling an order, and no Nvidia-specific cause was reported. Our midterm market summary covers the wider reaction in the dollar and gold.
The rest of the chip sector had its own news. AMD beat third-quarter estimates and guided higher, covered in our AMD stock page, and Qualcomm fell after hours on a weak profit guide (our Qualcomm stock page). Neither result changed the data center story for Nvidia on the day.
China: big orders, small deliveries
Reuters reported on 20 October that ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent ordered more than 3 million of Nvidia’s RTX PRO 5500 cards, with a combined sticker price above $35 billion, and that total orders from China exceeded 6 million. One source said Nvidia told partners they might receive only 5-10 percent of what they asked for, and another said Nvidia could build no more than 3 million of the cards worldwide in 2027. Samples are due in December and commercial deliveries in the first quarter of 2027.
The RTX PRO 5500 is a workstation card, not a data center chip, so this is upside at the margin rather than a change to the core business. It does show that Chinese demand exists if supply and export rules allow it.
What analysts expect into 17 November
Recent notes have kept their Buy ratings. Bank of America’s Vivek Arya maintained Buy on 3 November. Barclays’ Thomas O’Malley has $275 and Bernstein’s Daniel Zhu $400 (both 26 October); Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore has $300 and Citi’s Atif Malik $315 (both 22 October), per StockAnalysis.
The consensus for the fiscal year ending January 2027 is $411.65 billion of revenue, up 90.6 percent, and adjusted EPS of $9.31 (StockAnalysis). At $200 that is about 21.5 times this year’s expected earnings. The 17 November report has to confirm that growth rate and say whether the build-out is slowing.
For the earlier view, see our 29 October Nvidia page, written when the stock was near $215 after Big Tech capex results.
Nvidia stock: bull, base and bear into results
| Scenario | NVDA | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $180 | The data center slowdown worry spreads from local ballots to hyperscaler capex plans, and the stock keeps falling into the print. | The lowest analyst target on StockAnalysis; about 10 percent below the $200.13 close. |
| Base | $195-$215 | The stock trades in a range until 17 November while investors wait for the guide. | Thursday’s pre-market quote at the bottom; the late-October level near $215 at the top. |
| Bull | $243 | Results and guidance on 17 November show no slowdown, and the market treats the election sell-off as a buying chance. | The 6 October record of $243.37; about 21.6 percent above the close. |
The bear case sits below the current price. These are reference levels measured from the verified 4 November close, not forecasts. Even the lowest analyst target is only 10 percent below that close; the average target of $327.14 is 63 percent above it.
What to watch
- Thursday’s open: whether NVDA holds the $196.50 pre-market level or breaks further below $200.
- Other chip stocks: Micron and Marvell fell twice as much as Nvidia on Wednesday. If they recover, the election sell-off was a sector trade, not a Nvidia problem.
- Data center news: any hyperscaler comment on delayed or cancelled sites after the midterms.
- 17 November: the fiscal Q4 revenue guide and any update on China shipments.
Quick take: Nvidia closed at $200.13, down 3.17 percent, and traded at $196.50 before Thursday’s open, after the midterm results raised the risk of slower AI data center construction. Chip stocks fell while the Nasdaq rose. The stock is 17.8 percent below its record with results due 17 November. Expect $195-$215 until then; $180 needs the slowdown worry to reach capex plans, $243 needs a clean beat and guide.
FAQ
Why is Nvidia stock down today?
Nvidia fell 3.17 percent to $200.13 on 4 November and was down another 1.81 percent before Thursday’s open. Financial media tied the move to the Democratic midterm wins, which raised concerns about slower AI data center construction. No Nvidia-specific news was reported.
When does Nvidia report earnings?
Nvidia reports fiscal Q3 2027 results on Tuesday 17 November 2026, with a conference call at 2 p.m. PT (5 p.m. ET), according to its 28 October press release.
What is the Nvidia stock price target?
The average 12-month target is $327.14 across 62 analysts, with a low of $180 and a high of $515 (StockAnalysis). The consensus rating is Strong Buy.
How far is Nvidia below its all-time high?
The record close is $243.37 on 6 October 2026. Wednesday’s $200.13 close is 17.8 percent below it.
Did the midterm elections hurt chip stocks?
On 4 November the PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 3.13 percent while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.44 percent. Micron and Marvell each fell about 7 percent (Gotrade News).
Is Nvidia selling chips to China?
Reuters reported on 20 October that Chinese companies ordered more than 6 million RTX PRO 5500 workstation cards, but that Nvidia told partners they might receive only 5-10 percent of what they ordered, with deliveries from the first quarter of 2027.
Sources: StockAnalysis, 4-5 November (close, pre-market quote, day range, volume, 52-week range, valuation, analyst targets and ratings, fiscal 2027 consensus); Gotrade News, 4 November (sector moves, data center ballot tracker, cause of the drop); Invezz, 4 November (midterm reaction); Nvidia press release, 28 October (results date and call time); Reuters via BNN Bloomberg, 20 October (China orders).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Stock prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
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