Brent crude fell $6.98 to $106.45 on Monday, per the Oilprice.com futures board, a drop of 6.15% that took the January contract through its intraday low of $105.86 after opening at $111.69. WTI fell 6.44% to $97.41, breaking below $100 for the first time since the run that carried oil prices through October.
Monday’s oil price selling was broad and fast, and Murban lost 11.29%, gasoline futures fell 6.20% and heating oil fell 4.31%, with 248,300 lots changing hands in the Brent January contract. Brent had settled at $113.43 on Friday, so a single session erased seven dollars of the oil price.
Brent ground lower for most of the session, then fell almost vertically from $109 to its $105.86 low in the closing stretch. Source: Oilprice.comBrent Gave Back $7 and WTI Broke Below $100
Monday’s oil price range tells the story better than the close, because Brent traded between $105.86 and $112.41, a spread of $6.55 for a benchmark that had spent the morning near $110. Brent was near $110 and down about 3% earlier on Monday, so the fall has since roughly doubled.
Set against the year, the oil price move is a dent rather than a reversal. Brent is still up 7.56% over one month, 24.29% over three and 43.42% so far in 2026. October alone delivered a 13.6% gain and a fourth straight monthly rise, and the month closed at $113.43 after OPEC+ held its December targets for a third month.
The five-day figure is the one to watch, at minus 4.47%. Last week included Brent at $116 on Friday after the Hormuz mine claims and a $117 print when a tanker caught fire in the strait. The market has given back a week in a morning.
The Oil Price Drop Sat Entirely at the Front of the Curve
On the futures board, January 2027 lost $6.98 while December 2027 lost $2.41, December 2028 lost 85 cents and December 2029 lost 42 cents.
The front month lost nearly three times what December 2027 lost, which is what a war premium looks like when it drains. Source: Oilprice.com futures board, 2 November 2026 · Chart: FinanceFeedsA curve that falls hardest at the front is pricing a near-term supply interruption becoming less likely while leaving the long-run balance roughly intact, which matters more than the headline oil price percentage. Traders did not revise their view of 2029 on Monday. They revised their view of January.
Investor Takeaway
The $6.98 fall in January Brent against $2.41 in December 2027 shows the market repricing near-term risk rather than long-run supply, so the move is reversible on one headline.
Goldman Raised Its December Target Hours Before the Market Reached It
Goldman Sachs lifted its December Brent forecast to $105 a barrel from $90 on Monday, an increase of nearly 17%, and raised its 2027 average to $88 from $80. Brent spent the afternoon at $106.45, within $1.45 of an oil price target meant to describe the whole of December.
Goldman set an explicit condition for the oil price premium to unwind.
“For the risk premium to come off quickly, you would probably need to see a diplomatic solution,” said Daan Struyven of Goldman Sachs.
Monday delivered the hope of one rather than the thing itself, and took $7 out anyway. ANZ raised its end-2026 call to $105, a 10% revision, and framed the supply position in terms that cut against a sustained retreat.
“Eight months of adapting to disrupted Middle Eastern supply have materially weakened the buffers,” ANZ’s commodity analysts said.
UBS sees $110 by year end. All three published their revisions while the oil price was above $110, which is the risk in reading any of them as a floor.
Iran Has a Plan, and Washington Has Not Accepted It
No agreement has been reached, and the distinction matters for the oil price. Iran’s government said on Monday it had a two-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks, provided Washington meets its demands, which earlier ran to seven conditions including lifting the blockade of Iranian ports. Ships would follow a route agreed by Iran and Oman and travel under Iranian supervision.
Foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said the plan remains the basis for negotiations through mediators, adding that “this once again demonstrates Iran’s good-faith approach.” He gave no sign that Tehran had softened its terms or that Washington had accepted them. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said Qatar persuaded Tehran to shorten the plan from seven days to two.
What moved on Monday was the probability the market assigns to that plan working, ahead of US midterm elections that traders have been positioning around for two weeks. The OPEC+ decision to hold leaves no spare-capacity response to absorb a reversal.
Investor Takeaway
No official deal exists yet. Iran has published terms, the US has not accepted them, and the $7 fall prices a negotiation rather than an outcome.
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