Updated 15 October 2026. Spot gold traded near $4,148 an ounce at 13:08 UTC on Thursday 15 October (gold-api.com), after US September producer prices rose 1.3 percent in a month and 6.3 percent in a year, both well above forecasts. Kitco had spot at $4,144.60 at 8:53 a.m. ET, up $40.10 on the day. December COMEX futures traded at $4,171.30, up from a $4,107.90 close on Wednesday. Verdict: two hot inflation prints in two days have pushed up the odds of a Fed hike this month. Even so, gold has recovered all of Wednesday’s CPI loss, because the dollar and Treasury yields fell. Reference levels: $3,980 below, $4,320 above.
Key facts
- Spot, 15 October: about $4,148 at 13:08 UTC (gold-api.com) and $4,144.60 at 8:53 a.m. ET (Kitco). December futures were at $4,171.30 after a $4,107.90 close on 14 October and $4,177.30 on 13 October (COMEX data via Yahoo Finance).
- PPI, released 8:30 a.m. ET today: final-demand producer prices rose 1.3 percent month on month against a 0.6 percent estimate, and 6.3 percent year on year against a 5.5 percent Dow Jones consensus. That is the largest annual gain since December 2022. Final-demand energy jumped 10.8 percent and accounts for more than 80 percent of the monthly rise (BLS, via CNBC).
- Retail sales, also released today: sales rose 0.8 percent in September against a 0.3 percent forecast. The control group, which feeds into GDP, rose just 0.1 percent against a 0.3 percent estimate. Gas stations accounted for 71 percent of the dollar increase (Commerce Department, via AP).
- CPI, 14 October: headline inflation was 3.7 percent year on year against 3.6 percent expected. Core rose 0.3 percent month on month against 0.2 percent expected, and 2.6 percent year on year.
- Fed odds for 27-28 October: estimates vary by source and time. FXStreet put the chance of a hike at about 31.6 percent after the CPI release, up from about 22 percent. Other outlets quoted CME FedWatch as high as 42 percent immediately after the print. The Fed raised rates to 3.75-4.00 percent on 16 September.
- Record high: $5,597.23 on 29 January 2026 (Forbes Advisor). Gold is still about 26 percent below that peak.
Why gold went up on a day of hot inflation data
Hot inflation usually hurts gold. It raises the chance of higher interest rates, which makes a metal that pays no yield less attractive. That is what happened on Wednesday: December futures fell about $69, from $4,177.30 to $4,107.90, after the CPI release.
On Thursday the metal recovered all of that loss even though PPI came in hotter than CPI. FXStreet linked the bounce to a fall in US Treasury yields after a report that China was buying Treasuries. Investing.com reported that yields slid after their CPI-driven spike. The dollar also pulled back from an 18-month high. Lower yields and a softer dollar are the two things that lift gold most directly, and on Thursday they mattered more than the inflation data.
The details of both reports also make them less hawkish than the headlines suggest. Energy drove most of the PPI jump, and gas stations drove most of the retail-sales beat. The retail-sales control group rose just 0.1 percent, which points to a weaker consumer outside fuel. A Fed that treats this as an oil shock rather than broad overheating has less reason to hike in October. That reading keeps gold supported.
What decides the next move
- Treasury yields: gold’s rebound depends on the fall in yields lasting. If yields return to their post-CPI highs, gold is likely to retest Wednesday’s low.
- Fed speakers: markets are now pricing between about a one-in-three and a two-in-five chance of a hike on 28 October. Any official who backs that move would push those odds up, which is bad for gold.
- Oil: energy was behind both inflation beats. Brent is still above $100 because of Hormuz shipping risk (see today’s Brent outlook). A sustained drop in crude would ease hike fears and help gold.
Gold price scenarios
| Scenario | Level | What gets it there |
|---|---|---|
| Bear | $3,980 | Yields rebound and Fed officials back an October hike. Gold breaks Wednesday’s low and the $4,000 round number. About 4 percent below today’s spot. |
| Base | $4,200 | Yields stay lower and October hike odds settle near one in three. Gold climbs back to the $4,206 level it reached on 12 October, its strongest since 2 October. |
| Bull | $4,320 | The October hike is priced out as markets treat the inflation spike as energy-only. The dollar keeps falling from its 18-month high and gold breaks above its early-October range. |
All three levels are measured from the verified $4,148 spot. They are reference levels, not forecasts.
Quick take: CPI and PPI both came in hot, and gold still finished above its pre-CPI level. That shows the metal is trading on yields and the dollar more than on the inflation headlines. The $4,000-$4,075 zone is the support to watch. Above that zone, the bounce holds as long as yields keep easing.
Before the CPI release, FinanceFeeds set out the pre-print setup in gold at $4,155 ahead of the September CPI. For the crypto side of the same data, see Bitcoin after the hot September CPI.
FAQ
What is the gold price today?
Spot gold was about $4,148 an ounce at 13:08 UTC on 15 October 2026 (gold-api.com). Kitco quoted $4,144.60 at 8:53 a.m. ET. December COMEX futures traded at $4,171.30.
Why is gold up after a hot PPI report?
Treasury yields and the dollar both fell on Thursday. That outweighed the hawkish signal from PPI and from the previous day’s CPI. Energy also drove most of the PPI rise. That makes it look more like an oil shock than broad inflation.
What did September PPI show?
Final-demand producer prices rose 1.3 percent month on month and 6.3 percent year on year. Forecasts were 0.6 percent and 5.5 percent. The annual gain was the largest since December 2022, and energy jumped 10.8 percent (BLS).
Will the Fed hike rates in October?
Markets see it as possible but not the base case. Published estimates put the odds of a hike on 28 October at roughly 32 to 42 percent after the CPI release, depending on the source and the time of the reading.
What did September retail sales show?
Headline sales rose 0.8 percent against a 0.3 percent forecast. The control group rose only 0.1 percent, and gasoline stations accounted for 71 percent of the dollar increase.
Where is support and resistance for gold?
Support is in the $4,000-$4,075 zone, around Wednesday’s low and the round number. Resistance is near $4,206, the 12 October high. Above that, the bull reference is $4,320.
Sources: gold-api.com and Kitco (spot), COMEX via Yahoo Finance (futures), US Bureau of Labor Statistics via CNBC (PPI, CPI), US Commerce Department via AP (retail sales), FXStreet and Investing.com (yields, Fed odds), Forbes Advisor (record high).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Precious-metal prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
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